Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58c6c60e7e9ad2da476e476d4297d9ffa9fc55b3467a3bc83b67787a641535ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 17c | 3,452$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.87 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 21c | 2,076$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.28 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,049$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.33 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 1,483$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 1,226$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.17 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 21c | 899.97$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 79c | 626.58$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…81f2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 369$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed No | 80c | 324$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 20c | 301$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…230fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 22c | 145.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…4f25backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 22c | 57.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…435dbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…d4e0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-03?this page
- Will Paris FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.