NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ce6b7e160951ebdf4b7a80fa2b3ef0dff43dd3a51ae48e76e2045a2408bff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Wizards | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Knicks | 51c | 28,731$14,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,077.95 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Wizards | 48c | 10,240$4,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,930.3 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks | 52c | 8,559$4,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,108.13 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Knicks | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…767dbacked Wizards | 48c | 4,950$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Knicks | 51c | 1,656$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.61 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Knicks | 51c | 1,279$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.71 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 48c | 749.35$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Knicks | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Wizards | 49c | 518.37$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…1ebebacked Knicks | 52c | 479.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.23 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Wizards | 48c | 231.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 49c | 224.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 50c | 218.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Knicks | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Wizards | 51c | 154.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Wizards | 48c | 110.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Knicks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…1f27backed Wizards | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Wizards | 51c | 37.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…d530backed Wizards | 51c | 31.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wizards | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Knicks | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7429…451ebacked Knicks | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Knicks won
- Wizards vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.