Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591391a979cdc906d2e7ac127e60c227d6ec5bc1ef1ed847a6000294aae2d0d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Cerundolo | 78c | 471.52$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.07 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Musetti | 54c | 367$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Musetti | 18c | 326.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.45 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Musetti | 53c | 230.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Cerundolo | 60c | 227.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Musetti | 66c | 216.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 213.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cerundolo | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Musetti | 37c | 116.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Musetti | 39c | 106.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 212 | 56.1%119 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Cerundolo | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Musetti | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Cerundolo | 53c | 65.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cerundolo | 48c | 64.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Musetti | 47c | 58.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cerundolo | 47c | 46.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Cerundolo | 35c | 46.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cerundolo | 43c | 39.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Musetti | 53c | 34.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Musetti | 52c | 34.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Musetti | 52c | 33.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cerundolo | 37c | 32.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Musetti | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 303 | 39.9%121 W · 182 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Musetti | 41c | 24.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Musetti | 57c | 24.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Musetti | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Cerundolothis page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco CerundoloLorenzo Musetti won
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.