MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59326df34524b09d87e4196e49b8438738a7893381419e694ad2c0d72eac80d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bravesof Reds, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Braves | 52c | 2,564$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Braves | 66c | 2,509$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.19 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Reds | 34c | 2,480$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.27 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Braves | 26c | 1,869$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.53 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 28c | 1,717$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.18 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Braves | 67c | 1,503$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.99 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Reds | 65c | 1,422$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.62 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Reds | 34c | 745.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Braves | 66c | 549.83$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Reds | 33c | 415.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Braves | 27c | 337.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Braves | 66c | 310$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Reds | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Braves | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Reds | 29c | 250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Reds | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Reds | 30c | 203$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Braves | 65c | 155.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Braves | 66c | 148$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Reds | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Reds | 36c | 138.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 38c | 138$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Braves | 66c | 107.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Reds | 52c | 106.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Braves | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…5f66backed Braves | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Braves | 36c | 89.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Reds | 34c | 75.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Reds | 33c | 68.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Braves | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 67c | 49.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Braves | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Braves | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Braves | 71c | 24.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Braves | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…cda6backed Braves | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Braves | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Braves | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.