TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

CA Talleres vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d6a…4adabacked Over25c2,000$500 inLost-$50019963.8%127 W · 72 L+19.3wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Under74c1,890$1,396 inWon+$493.958657%49 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0d…72a0backed Over10c1,846$185 inLost-$185.051233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+186.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Over25c739.23$186 inLost-$1866162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+94.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over6c585.3$34 inLost-$33.745,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over6c516.91$31 inLost-$31.012,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0b…2500backed Over11c408.33$45 inLost-$4515625.6%40 W · 116 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over6c403.51$26 inLost-$25.893,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over9c194.4$17 inLost-$16.9451750.7%262 W · 255 L+28.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bea…038ebacked Under9c153.84$14 inWon+$139.842528%7 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under75c121.34$91 inWon+$30.3219050.5%96 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under74c99.11$73 inWon+$26.2411817.8%21 W · 97 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Over22c49.95$11 inLost-$10.9611640.5%47 W · 69 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Over36c39$14 inLost-$14.227262.5%45 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fa9…09fabacked Under66c28.32$19 inWon+$9.6310635.8%38 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Under74c17.88$13 inWon+$4.6530048%144 W · 156 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.