TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

CA Talleres vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over24c22,500$5,366 inWon+$17,133.6714829.7%44 W · 104 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under76c17,444$13,256 inLost-$13,255.745,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under77c1,298$999 inLost-$999.4651749.9%258 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c1,204$882 inLost-$8828,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under77c1,000$770 inLost-$7701,66851.7%863 W · 805 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under76c593.08$453 inLost-$453.093,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x677e…4a1fbacked Over34c590.27$198 inWon+$391.8411328.3%32 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe54…c928backed Under78c182.64$142 inLost-$142.461080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+45.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under77c179.34$138 inLost-$138.0940451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under76c177$135 inLost-$135.282,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad31…c93abacked Under65c166.84$109 inLost-$108.973438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc046…d8f0backed Over32c156.24$50 inWon+$106.244934.7%17 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85af…c5ffbacked Under78c122.81$96 inLost-$95.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under76c65.36$50 inLost-$5064633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed Over39c51.81$20 inWon+$31.825230.8%16 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Under78c50.76$39 inLost-$39.3911457%65 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under75c44.07$33 inLost-$33.0469453.5%371 W · 323 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Under76c36.58$28 inLost-$27.8514563.4%92 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under76c35.63$27 inLost-$27.1550656.3%285 W · 221 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Under78c28.79$22 inLost-$22.462070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under78c21.9$17 inLost-$17.0846449.6%230 W · 234 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under74c16$12 inLost-$11.8472058.8%423 W · 297 L+29.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Under78c15.21$12 inLost-$11.869350.5%47 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.