MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a1853323046a4e27ccb321bd13487922a887cfe6df23173b8c02d7d8dee7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 16,756$8,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,538.36 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 10,052$4,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,127.08 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 1,930$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,842$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.79 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 71c | 1,474$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.62 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 1,055$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 49c | 981.79$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.81 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 978.43$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 49c | 678.58$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 655.56$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.89 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 51c | 570.94$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 516.45$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 433.76$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Over | 49c | 407.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 49c | 395.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 49c | 341.25$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…306abacked Over | 69c | 320.02$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…da1ebacked Over | 49c | 315.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 49c | 315.53$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 43c | 310.87$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 49c | 296.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.35 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 46c | 235.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 179.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 162.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 49c | 154.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 46c | 141.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 46c | 141.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 46c | 141.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 46c | 141.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 62c | 109.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Over | 48c | 103.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 62c | 98.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 50c | 91.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 65.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Over | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Under | 42c | 56.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 57c | 45.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5853backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 49c | 39.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 44c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Over | 48c | 29.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 44c | 26.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 25.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 49c | 24.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 52c | 22.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 54c | 21.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.