MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19bfa1fb7f3477c2f17f5dd48a70f9efe9bb65d9f75be640b2cd010b0218bac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 10,882$6,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.32 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…ac65backed New York Mets | 3c | 1,095$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 17c | 935.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 37c | 342.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 192.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed New York Mets | 39c | 175.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed New York Mets | 28c | 153$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 150.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed New York Mets | 25c | 143.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked New York Mets | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 22c | 93.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 61.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 55.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed New York Mets | 37c | 50.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed New York Mets | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…1139backed New York Mets | 31c | 49.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 38c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.