Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59aa25f428545140aadac6bab4a34cfcd7e2edbeaf40afb6a049a25c41136fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 877.35$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 8c | 405.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.2 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 316.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 79c | 307.26$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 241.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 77c | 211.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 209.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 38c | 179.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 15c | 169.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 11c | 165.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 151.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 75c | 150.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 9c | 135.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 27c | 124.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 14c | 119$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 87.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 62c | 80.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…7e38backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 67.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 23c | 59.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 37c | 54.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 52.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 30c | 50.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 26c | 46.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…45f7backed Yes | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 33.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 53c | 33.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…1006backed Yes | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…2035backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…2271backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.