Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59aec8ffc916f6848e4d1da7a4dc3a810edea3fe7915eeacd96c5afed96b2826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 250.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 242.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 234.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 233.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 169.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 151.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 8c | 148.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 141.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 73c | 133.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 120.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 30c | 107.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 69c | 105.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 95.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 70c | 75.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 72.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 70.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 66.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 65c | 65.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 77c | 63.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 58.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 27c | 51.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 33c | 47.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 68c | 42.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 36c | 39.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 34.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 30.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 67c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 26.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 67c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…6e32backed No | 70c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 77c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.