Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b1db96033a020b4afa279fff7ae69295f34429e0bc70ae9ca4e55166bf2df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 11c | 2,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 14c | 789.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 528.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 18c | 490.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 488.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 12c | 446.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 18c | 312.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 259.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 247.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 214.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 12c | 197.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 193.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 179.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 17c | 151.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 10c | 136.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 135.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 25c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 103$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 14c | 99.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 98.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 17c | 97.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 93.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 74.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 18c | 71.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 52.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 49.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 74c | 30.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.