Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c161c308d3dbb6ecb522f97a2befc1b8ce153b98861b9a37372f95cca7bc507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 15c | 1,538$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.11 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 696.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 575.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 8c | 489.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 7c | 470.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 20c | 305$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 4c | 291.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 202.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 197.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 189.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 180.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 158.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 13c | 129.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 94.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 61c | 82.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 80c | 74.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 68.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 46.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 80c | 38.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 72c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 60c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.