Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843dcf306210a7bb07fe62928e5522fd0c1bf640c94be9fd549aaf4cfa851607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 21c | 635.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 434.5$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 303.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 255.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 228.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 222.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 78c | 199.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 27c | 194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 181.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 178$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9d28backed Yes | 29c | 172.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 158.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 147.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 137.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 17c | 126.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 126$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 112.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 109$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…a322backed Yes | 24c | 104.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 12c | 100.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 96.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 16c | 72.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 18c | 72.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 67.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 63.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 23c | 59.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 58.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…3d58backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 55.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 54.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 75c | 50.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 50.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 48.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 42.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 33.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 73c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8d5backed No | 79c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.