Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0958455c909391889e15a102797a192da06f7d947938a50d438dee6cb53f8d7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 434.5$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 22c | 420.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 29c | 340.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 321.26$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6d…08edbacked Yes | 15c | 274.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 12c | 222.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 202.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9d28backed Yes | 25c | 197.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 175$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 16c | 169.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 161.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 126$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 106.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 25c | 104.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 82.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 79.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 16c | 68.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 17c | 64.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 64.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked Yes | 25c | 63.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 75c | 55.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 22c | 55.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 51.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 49.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 77c | 46.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 38.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 78c | 36.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 33.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on August 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.