Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c123b079ccc3b378ee6d7cd8eeff96b140e891e8ac8335ac3ef1f131de6db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keys | 1c | 11,392$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keys | 5c | 7,209$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Keys | 5c | 6,553$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Keys | 18c | 5,941$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.38 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Keys | 1c | 4,235$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Keys | 5c | 3,380$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.65 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Keys | 9c | 3,260$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.16 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Keys | 1c | 3,181$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Keys | 1c | 2,355$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +398.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Keys | 1c | 2,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Keys | 5c | 1,891$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Keys | 4c | 1,814$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Keys | 3c | 1,811$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 123 | 13.8%17 W · 106 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…cee8backed Keys | 6c | 1,671$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Keys | 7c | 1,619$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Keys | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Keys | 15c | 983.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Keys | 4c | 845.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Keys | 17c | 734.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Keys | 7c | 717.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Keys | 5c | 675$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Keys | 15c | 641.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…9253backed Keys | 7c | 571.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Keys | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Keys | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Keys | 17c | 447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Keys | 14c | 430.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Keys | 9c | 380.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Keys | 10c | 310.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Sabalenka | 80c | 260$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Keys | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Keys | 10c | 211.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Keys | 12c | 205.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Keys | 19c | 199.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Keys | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Sabalenka | 78c | 127.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Keys | 9c | 120.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Sabalenka | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Keys | 13c | 84.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Sabalenka | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 186 | 59.7%111 W · 75 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…891bbacked Keys | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Sabalenka | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Sabalenka | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keysthis page
- Sabalenka vs. Keys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs KeysSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.