Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c8489acc4a41343a91a87469e92fa518ba4a0dc749d63156e2dd7bbd3dfb4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof L1ga Team, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 4ikibamboni | 62c | 1,083$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.75 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed L1ga Team | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed 4ikibamboni | 63c | 1,010$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 66c | 1,000$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.21 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed L1ga Team | 36c | 831.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…4819backed L1ga Team | 33c | 508$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked L1ga Team | 37c | 505$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked L1ga Team | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed L1ga Team | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed 4ikibamboni | 67c | 349.6$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed L1ga Team | 35c | 185$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 66c | 183$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed L1ga Team | 36c | 179.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed 4ikibamboni | 64c | 164.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed L1ga Team | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed 4ikibamboni | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked L1ga Team | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked 4ikibamboni | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed L1ga Team | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed 4ikibamboni | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked 4ikibamboni | 67c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.