CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59cc05477df5ba77522e04d2aea3f04f77e7567f13b14cb195b715f0fc5529d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof VP.Prodigy, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3936…6e40backed VP.Prodigy | 3c | 26,061$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +340.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed VP.Prodigy | 1c | 14,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 4,224$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.61 | 482 | 51.7%249 W · 233 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…1ad4backed STATE | 49c | 2,107$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.88 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed VP.Prodigy | 6c | 1,545$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked VP.Prodigy | 6c | 1,545$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 72c | 949.69$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.25 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed VP.Prodigy | 6c | 700$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…5405backed VP.Prodigy | 7c | 590$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…6d95backed STATE | 34c | 585.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…5e63backed VP.Prodigy | 7c | 483.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9ffdbacked VP.Prodigy | 7c | 420.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked STATE | 36c | 261.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1407…e56cbacked VP.Prodigy | 42c | 250.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed STATE | 33c | 228.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked STATE | 39c | 227.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 726 | 44.4%322 W · 404 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked STATE | 62c | 186$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed STATE | 32c | 181$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 53c | 178.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked STATE | 36c | 166$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.91 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked VP.Prodigy | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 2,770 | 37.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L | -139.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked STATE | 34c | 127.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked VP.Prodigy | 73c | 112$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 230 | 56.1%129 W · 101 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked VP.Prodigy | 19c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 76.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 74.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed STATE | 42c | 74.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 66.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed STATE | 34c | 66.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed STATE | 32c | 49.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…bd8ebacked STATE | 61c | 45.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…472ebacked VP.Prodigy | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked STATE | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked STATE | 61c | 34.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 377 | 59.7%225 W · 152 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed VP.Prodigy | 72c | 33.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,062 | 42.2%448 W · 614 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed VP.Prodigy | 73c | 30.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 164 | 61.6%101 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…1257backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked VP.Prodigy | 74c | 15.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE (BO3) - United21 PlayoffsSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.