CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fe6f039f934d4b6eb4bb55bf4943f5783bb0051732197fecadba7a242a53bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof VP.Prodigy, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa032…2090backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 8,443$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.06 | 482 | 51.7%249 W · 233 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked STATE | 63c | 6,683$4,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.01 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 47c | 1,799$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.66 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked STATE | 72c | 1,260$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.56 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked VP.Prodigy | 25c | 935.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 3,415 | 29.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L | -275.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed STATE | 74c | 581.48$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked STATE | 74c | 570.74$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.41 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed STATE | 70c | 427.33$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked STATE | 69c | 395.91$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked STATE | 70c | 390.51$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed STATE | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed STATE | 70c | 358$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…bc59backed STATE | 71c | 352$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked STATE | 74c | 310$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed STATE | 70c | 301$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed STATE | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked STATE | 63c | 297.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 726 | 44.4%322 W · 404 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked STATE | 74c | 268.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed STATE | 72c | 252$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 357 | 48.2%172 W · 185 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked STATE | 69c | 247.53$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 230.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 343 | 56.6%194 W · 149 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed STATE | 68c | 224.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 490 | 50.6%248 W · 242 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed STATE | 67c | 210$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked VP.Prodigy | 11c | 207.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…509cbacked VP.Prodigy | 20c | 199.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked STATE | 57c | 192.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed STATE | 64c | 187.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 510 | 55.9%285 W · 225 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 39c | 172.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…4b77backed STATE | 64c | 158.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…3dfabacked STATE | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed STATE | 70c | 136$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed VP.Prodigy | 35c | 95.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 80c | 93.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…70bbbacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 76.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked STATE | 69c | 71.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked STATE | 77c | 51.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed STATE | 60c | 51.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked STATE | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,888 | 36.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L | -197.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked STATE | 70c | 46.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked VP.Prodigy | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…9ee3backed STATE | 56c | 27.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…908cbacked STATE | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 206 | 37.9%78 W · 128 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked STATE | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 230 | 56.1%129 W · 101 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE (BO3) - United21 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.