NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0290ac523d2cb2dd5d00e0a3cb101ea0af53ca8a7c13c4975d00c9e7093e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Hawks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 48c | 2,712$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Nets | 52c | 2,288$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.24 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nets | 46c | 658$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.32 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 54c | 644$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 47c | 292.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Hawks | 46c | 198.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Hawks | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 48c | 134.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Nets | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Nets | 54c | 71.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 48c | 64.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…b792backed Nets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…8270backed Nets | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…ae52backed Hawks | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…4641backed Nets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked Nets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…6c5bbacked Nets | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Nets | 51c | 32.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…5311backed Nets | 53c | 30.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07b…17cebacked Nets | 53c | 30.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…c293backed Nets | 51c | 29.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…618cbacked Nets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1d…2bd7backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8022…e1d7backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…5d74backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…a3fbbacked Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…1468backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe890…5d71backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…b0dcbacked Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…c4a1backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…71d3backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf231…6b8dbacked Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3cd3backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Hawks | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…af57backed Nets | 53c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Nets | 54c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…56a4backed Nets | 53c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fb4fbacked Nets | 53c | 22.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…d2edbacked Nets | 53c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…5a18backed Nets | 53c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…dd61backed Nets | 53c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)this page
- Hawks vs. NetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.