NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8693ecfee2219f534ad90aac18da4dd5a9bf99637a5768b2bbc98378900c0787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb3…a6d1backed Under | 46c | 4,325$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…5fdcbacked Under | 46c | 3,262$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…0849backed Under | 50c | 2,136$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,816$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…b6c4backed Over | 54c | 982$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 54c | 958$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.56 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…42f8backed Under | 46c | 746$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…2d2ebacked Over | 54c | 745$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 32c | 713.34$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.63 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…559cbacked Over | 54c | 655$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…cbe5backed Over | 54c | 635$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…5070backed Over | 54c | 620$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…5e5abacked Over | 54c | 615$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…2cadbacked Over | 54c | 610$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…981fbacked Over | 54c | 608$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b08…0327backed Over | 54c | 599$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…8265backed Over | 54c | 587$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…f99ebacked Under | 46c | 578$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…51c5backed Over | 54c | 542$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6703…8993backed Over | 54c | 536$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…6a9fbacked Over | 54c | 518$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf9…3b47backed Under | 46c | 495$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…3a70backed Over | 54c | 435$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…3552backed Under | 46c | 431$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…d549backed Under | 46c | 393$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 384.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…77d4backed Over | 50c | 362$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…70cdbacked Over | 50c | 326$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb08c…9b35backed Over | 54c | 322$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…0606backed Over | 54c | 315$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…4e79backed Over | 54c | 311$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…cddfbacked Over | 50c | 298$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1e…103bbacked Over | 54c | 298$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…c28fbacked Over | 50c | 263$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x281b…e974backed Over | 50c | 238$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…9f6bbacked Over | 50c | 237$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d6…bdf6backed Over | 50c | 236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…033abacked Over | 54c | 197$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 196.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…917fbacked Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…e23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…9cdfbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 21.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 237.5this page
- Hawks vs. NetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Nets won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.