NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x388390c306b25d0a15938ef7d119b30b30dc3215cdebbe8e3abf2bb8bd15d2f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 47c | 46,500$21,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,855 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 53c | 25,383$13,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,930.18 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 53c | 10,710$5,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,019.91 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 48c | 10,275$4,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,890.88 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…ba08backed Under | 55c | 7,557$4,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,412.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,629$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 53c | 3,600$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 53c | 2,930$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.1 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 52c | 1,339$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.87 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 516.43$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.83 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 55c | 211$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 199$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 48c | 172.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Under | 52c | 137.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Under | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 239.5this page
- Hawks vs. NetsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Nets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Nets won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.