Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton FC win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0fd16efedf9b89944dee37da3e4c18cae46e1c75616ea82a03be4efebdd8ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 51c | 30,000$15,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,800 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 50c | 10,710$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 49c | 8,076$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.32 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 53c | 2,209$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 1,647$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.86 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 50c | 1,597$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.44 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…57e6backed No | 53c | 1,589$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…296dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,589$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…3272backed No | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…3391backed Yes | 51c | 1,400$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 1,231$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.93 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 54c | 1,117$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.32 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 49c | 897.41$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.68 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Yes | 45c | 748.91$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 48c | 376.84$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 43c | 325.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 50c | 322.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 137.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 49c | 132.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…a9edbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +276.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 47c | 97.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 41c | 86.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 50c | 42.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…f658backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed Yes | 45c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…1f24backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton FC win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Southampton FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.