Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3e01dc8399e7dd0b8710f2f78e72327423c349ca685afbb1f5edc1bf9337e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 1c | 19,777$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 25c | 7,224$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.44 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 1,504$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.14 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…93dfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,130$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.41 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed No | 59c | 1,004$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 41c | 614.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 59c | 554.69$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.42 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 59c | 386.91$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 62c | 321.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 60c | 312.3$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.22 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 59c | 211.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 60c | 211.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fc…b1fbbacked Yes | 41c | 93.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 78c | 84.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 59c | 62.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 39c | 59.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…26b5backed Yes | 40c | 43.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 62c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.