Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0cbbe58023810b9ef1244ebd428947356742998c034722e7c77a703a8cb9a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 0c | 28,065$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 5,121$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.6 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 60c | 3,500$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 33c | 3,074$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 14c | 1,759$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.8 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 39c | 514.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 439.98$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 415.4$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 218.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 191.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 40c | 152.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +10.9wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 66c | 152.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 21c | 130.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 124.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 40c | 102.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 39c | 101.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 400 | 51%204 W · 196 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 64c | 84.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 34c | 81.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Over | 32c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 273 | 38.8%106 W · 167 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 40c | 43.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 60c | 34.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b0…2910backed Over | 59c | 25.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 60c | 20.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Over | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.