Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ea261c10bec1964b5a51566d95ac21621d5adba7cd3c2d03c4f1effa46be11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 0c | 39,499$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…5401backed Over | 0c | 16,525$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 33c | 3,237$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.18 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 67c | 2,775$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.14 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 2,721$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.91 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 37c | 2,416$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.26 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,969$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.57 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 62c | 1,200$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 29c | 862.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 33c | 755.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Under | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 33c | 299.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 226$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 35c | 216.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 62c | 156$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 65c | 155.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 127.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6b58backed Over | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 75c | 95.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a3…dc43backed Under | 66c | 74.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 68.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 62c | 68.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 65c | 37.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 66c | 33.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…a471backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 70c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 66c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Under | 68c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 78c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.