Asian League · resolved market
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03a42948783568936a0d0c27a0ae2de9a455c998219e8d7c7b1d0429bf14779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tōkyō Verdyof FC Machida Zelvia, Tōkyō Verdy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Machida Zelvia | 22c | 2,251$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.27 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tōkyō Verdy | 76c | 1,193$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.29 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed FC Machida Zelvia | 28c | 832.52$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Tōkyō Verdy | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tōkyō Verdy | 77c | 434.78$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed FC Machida Zelvia | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Tōkyō Verdy | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed FC Machida Zelvia | 23c | 299$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tōkyō Verdy | 77c | 271.7$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed FC Machida Zelvia | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +10.9wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 77c | 234.65$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Tōkyō Verdy | 77c | 234.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked FC Machida Zelvia | 17c | 178$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Tōkyō Verdy | 74c | 147.37$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Tōkyō Verdy | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tōkyō Verdy | 76c | 62.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 56.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked FC Machida Zelvia | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Tōkyō Verdy | 75c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Tōkyō Verdy | 77c | 30.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Tōkyō Verdy | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…b5e3backed Tōkyō Verdy | 75c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…2feabacked Tōkyō Verdy | 78c | 12.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.