South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4879b9fd5719e8529f3f1a0fac73b1dac28b6fe00a8fd6022466f0db969596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 28c | 1,854$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 11c | 1,823$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.2 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 1,486$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.82 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 1,394$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.14 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 1,182$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.3 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…6657backed No | 72c | 879.95$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 27c | 491.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed No | 79c | 443.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 423.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed No | 72c | 378.58$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 28c | 357.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…7e5ebacked Yes | 30c | 353.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 74c | 228.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 197.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 33c | 176.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 27c | 161.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 26c | 99.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 29c | 91.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 29c | 87.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked Yes | 25c | 79.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 31c | 64.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 36.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…e702backed Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 70c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-11?No won
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.