South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c7c0b72ae5ca1eb22b2a4e7bcad39ec80c1dd3c52ebf95be00e88a2db59224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 24c | 3,717$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.76 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…62a4backed Yes | 19c | 1,849$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 1,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 20c | 1,367$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.54 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 252.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 77c | 181.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 15c | 177.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 163.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed No | 77c | 152.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 136$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…423cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 77c | 101.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked No | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 64c | 68.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…a6aabacked Yes | 38c | 67.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 29c | 66.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…73bbbacked Yes | 19c | 61.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 55.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 69c | 50.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…13b3backed No | 74c | 40.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 71c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 36.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked No | 74c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…8311backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.