South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb92f221f355e63908b10c6cc3ee2caee98df73a1624d01eb4e6d7d1eaf79bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 52c | 1,917$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.13 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 44c | 1,599$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.84 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 51c | 908.19$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.54 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 738.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed No | 50c | 551.42$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 50c | 500.38$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.05 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 50c | 495.81$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 54c | 431.23$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 338.57$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 3c | 332.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 34c | 260.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 239.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.47 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…8320backed Yes | 51c | 221.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed No | 37c | 135.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 78c | 128.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 42c | 79.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed No | 55c | 79.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…a287backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked No | 56c | 71.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafeb…5cd2backed Yes | 73c | 68.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 46c | 65.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 61c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9500backed Yes | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b14…9848backed Yes | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 52c | 43.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 39c | 36.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 61c | 35.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed No | 61c | 35.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 61c | 35.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 61c | 30.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 51c | 25.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 50c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…91ffbacked Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 61c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-03-11?No won
- Will CA Paranaense vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.