Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4f637a0d0025dfa0a3aaf75e70870383a268e22b585b788b32147054584384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 7c | 34,363$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.78 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,205$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.32 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 6c | 4,012$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.72 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8c…046fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,166$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…9334backed Yes | 10c | 3,099$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccc…78dcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…1470backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 8c | 1,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,006$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 8c | 960.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…d5d8backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 6c | 772.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 7c | 670$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 7c | 557.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…71b5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 7c | 484.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…eb08backed Yes | 13c | 392.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d00…5745backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…bc21backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…ed55backed Yes | 38c | 131.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1706…8cc8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 52c | 71.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30?No won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.