Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf495a559ccafb5bce93873cf6657185101ba8f9f1180350eebb5f720a447b492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 3c | 21,706$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.97 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 20,269$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.18 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,528$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 3c | 16,205$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.43 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1407…1eaabacked Yes | 4c | 15,794$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 3c | 10,168$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,999$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed Yes | 3c | 6,789$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…bdc1backed Yes | 0c | 6,593$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b3…8454backed Yes | 2c | 5,733$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 4c | 5,016$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…e5a5backed Yes | 3c | 4,083$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 3c | 4,003$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…0bacbacked Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…1470backed Yes | 3c | 3,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…af8abacked Yes | 1c | 3,602$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 3,464$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 3c | 2,864$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 7c | 2,816$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Yes | 4c | 2,782$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,648$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 4c | 2,445$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 2,298$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…22b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 3c | 2,030$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…1a11backed Yes | 3c | 1,975$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…71b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,903$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…9334backed Yes | 6c | 1,810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…3a87backed Yes | 3c | 1,563$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 3c | 1,481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d00…5745backed Yes | 3c | 1,296$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…3e97backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…363bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…52f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…0a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…5542backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed Yes | 3c | 984.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 3c | 930.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…308cbacked Yes | 3c | 911.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 4c | 859.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 3c | 816.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 794.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…0259backed Yes | 3c | 792.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 4c | 765.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 726.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2888…4b49backed Yes | 3c | 721.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 693.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…bc21backed Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 3c | 606.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 4c | 600.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 3c | 579.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 3c | 554.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…8233backed Yes | 3c | 529.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…ce8fbacked Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 3c | 487.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c4…a8f6backed Yes | 3c | 447.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…5b99backed Yes | 3c | 356.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…7d1dbacked Yes | 6c | 333.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 3c | 319.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes | 4c | 314.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Yes | 6c | 313.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.