Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08fd8c7cfce5d959368b3b6bffb4e503c17b7cd6099c770a46ca296baa12ddf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,587,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,686,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,587,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 10c | 840,032$82,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,623.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 9c | 95,000$8,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,549.98 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 9c | 37,194$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.45 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 10c | 31,390$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.99 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 10c | 11,300$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…3e55backed No | 11c | 10,900$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 12c | 6,886$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.43 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 9c | 5,695$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.62 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e9…f3fcbacked No | 10c | 4,279$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d170backed No | 9c | 3,600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…f84bbacked No | 10c | 3,400$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 8c | 3,210$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.31 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 10c | 3,077$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 11c | 3,050$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.48 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 12c | 2,997$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.64 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 10c | 2,685$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 12c | 2,240$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked No | 10c | 2,169$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8734…2e6cbacked No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…42c6backed No | 11c | 1,480$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 10c | 1,200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 1,075$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 221 | 47.5%105 W · 116 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 10c | 968.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…d9e8backed No | 8c | 900$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 10c | 763.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 13c | 751$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 13c | 739.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 3c | 701.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 14c | 699.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 10c | 600$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 10c | 490$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 9c | 477.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 10c | 346.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 9c | 324.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…05b9backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…ad99backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 13c | 260$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 9c | 258$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…679dbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 10c | 249.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 9c | 243.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 6c | 230.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 10c | 226.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…308cbacked No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 9c | 130.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed No | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked No | 10c | 111.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…ee13backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e8…57a7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 11c | 92.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.