South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a5123b22713dc21691f6c07d9d09eea3359a419bc7a985899fbfd1a69959c93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Yes | 24c | 4,891$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 3,714$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.64 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 3,099$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.24 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Yes | 72c | 2,960$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 41c | 2,084$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.67 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,547$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.8 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 1,382$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.26 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 7c | 821.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 793.09$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.75 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 20c | 599.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.38 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 372.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 352.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 21c | 328.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.57 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed No | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 5c | 221$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 30c | 182.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yes | 49c | 181.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 178.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 29c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 64c | 151.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 79c | 124.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 22c | 113.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed No | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 95.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 62c | 80.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 52c | 77.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked No | 29c | 59.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 57.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Yes | 31c | 47.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Yes | 71c | 39.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…f312backed No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 14.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Puebla win on 2026-01-30?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.