Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a5284e04b1ae0201e8fefdd89e48a1418712043f2e4e9975ba348dd25c85c7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 7c | 36,959$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 9c | 32,490$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 1,925$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.14 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 845.81$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2752…8ce3backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 73c | 170.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 13c | 141.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Yes | 15c | 139.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 12c | 124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 122$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea99…f13ebacked Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 75c | 95.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 25c | 95.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 25c | 80.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b2…a6edbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…6c15backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 75c | 50.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.