TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed No43c35,636$15,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,423.964938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes51c15,050$7,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3727757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No51c8,781$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.5469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes72c8,618$6,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.923,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Yes48c6,488$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No50c5,672$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,83610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes49c4,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,29544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes53c4,015$2,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.3510641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes49c3,500$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes68c3,376$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.5916060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked No53c3,207$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.541618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No46c3,015$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.152759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No25c2,772$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.094447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed Yes47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No23c1,845$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.1153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.545147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa79…f645backed Yes49c1,091$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes50c1,050$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5257639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed No53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5309549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No23c996.07$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.632,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35712651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No28c690.23$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.461,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No34c670.66$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No51c599.98$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.995044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes75c584.41$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No53c570.75$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.031,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No50c465.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No27c428.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5528…c098backed Yes48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed No52c411.67$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.071662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c79…1593backed No28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb139…b87cbacked No54c339.8$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacdc…93e3backed Yes47c338.11$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d03…37a4backed No54c334.03$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x679d…3e7bbacked Yes47c332.19$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No22c320$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.45928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed No36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No52c262.67$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes48c244.12$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e5…292fbacked No51c232$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes49c230.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3930054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No26c222$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No49c201.84$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10015829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eac…525ebacked Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes48c175$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9134547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No26c165$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.355244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes74c125$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No53c115$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.956053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes47c114.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.896845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea99…f13ebacked No36c111$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed No34c102.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356253.2%33 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76e7…1872backed No54c88.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick53cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked No50c84.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5410552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes48c80.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.565145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c8…bc51backed Yes49c72.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6421041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No52c59.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.214539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes70c55.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7211644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.510946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…12cbbacked No51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x116d…faccbacked No54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522c…c056backed Yes47c44.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x657e…9fa5backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4f…9a7bbacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209345.2%42 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed1…1094backed Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.47834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No54c39.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.329951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed No50c38.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4918746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed No53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes75c36.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2430647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65a6…3e59backed Yes48c35.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.423650%18 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed No51c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7521051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed No50c32.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.485752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No52c32.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8612165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c34…2055backed Yes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf6…03e7backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…04cebacked Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.255100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No51c29.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.153351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked No51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked No51c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.794835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44e8…7e25backed No54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3b…6583backed Yes49c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.775563.6%35 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f52…2f2abacked Yes49c26.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534663%29 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes48c25.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3125850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked No53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.253158.1%18 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8bb…7b07backed Yes48c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64af…9cdcbacked Yes47c23.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11af…ad82backed No54c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8178248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x594d…ceafbacked No54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49564.2%61 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.