Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fc995b72169737083150e4d2bf5848caf69d48417dce48b7289cc5b648b6de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 27c | 36,968$9,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,981.35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 27c | 33,707$9,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,100.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 29,310$21,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,699.51 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 15,457$11,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,173.33 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 12,654$9,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 73c | 5,600$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 3,287$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.49 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 1,674$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.13 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 1,400$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 73c | 1,310$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.74 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 73c | 1,289$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.03 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 73c | 770$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 73c | 597.71$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 415.43$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 74c | 375.02$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 75c | 358.28$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 18c | 285$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…c098backed Yes | 27c | 274.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 260.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 74c | 243.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 167.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 147.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 22c | 143.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…525ebacked Yes | 29c | 141.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 73c | 132.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea99…f13ebacked Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 85.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 27c | 68.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 74c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 76c | 24.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.