Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a5306778afef10d72da18b6b58cbc133db0f0a10d7cecfc98f9c3f5a743be2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 16c | 894.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 417.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 363.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 295.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 289.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 264.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 238.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 63c | 196.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 181.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 174.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 163.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 131.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 12c | 127.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 111.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 42c | 108.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 103.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 45c | 102.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 97.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 97.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 97.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 95.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 92.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 83.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked Yes | 27c | 73.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 67.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 65.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 61.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 53.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 51.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 51.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 49.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 63c | 48.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked Yes | 60c | 47.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 35c | 46.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 36c | 43.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 41.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…cde9backed Yes | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 29.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…4d64backed Yes | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 66c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.