NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a591a399507187c19f55109a0b4d169c4466666729d46520c0ff414aeb7b380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 55c | 4,269$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.85 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 45c | 3,094$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.18 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,917$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.51 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Over | 59c | 850.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 617$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.65 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 42c | 479.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.57 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 41c | 429.73$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 33c | 418.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 54c | 300$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 57c | 286.15$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Over | 58c | 236$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 226.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 166$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Over | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 42c | 159.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 57c | 148$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 43c | 148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 42c | 75.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 43c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Over | 58c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. CanadiensSenators won
- Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.