NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b267aa395001488ecf6a269d77ee263f7b3dffef9c3f34930f5c089d7b6f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 54c | 149,593$80,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,780.13 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 46c | 137,306$63,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,145.37 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 55c | 33,273$18,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,444.36 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 45c | 15,555$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,555.25 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 10,183$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,702.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 46c | 9,137$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,933.83 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 3,562$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.86 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 56c | 3,442$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.52 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.85 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 2,036$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.16 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 2,000$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Over | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.36 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 1,406$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.36 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Under | 54c | 770$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Over | 47c | 755.32$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.32 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 44c | 636$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.16 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 54c | 527.75$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.55 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 47c | 500$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 455$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Over | 46c | 434.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…e3d9backed Over | 46c | 325.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 209.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 47c | 202.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…74aebacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 47c | 191.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 47c | 146$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 46c | 136.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Over | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…f52cbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…4cf4backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 77.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 44c | 72.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…b712backed Under | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 57.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Over | 50c | 53.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 47c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…af0bbacked Over | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…82e7backed Over | 47c | 41.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2f…f35fbacked Over | 47c | 39.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…0256backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5910…1c99backed Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1415backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 46c | 28.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. CanadiensSenators won
- Senators vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.