Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a88b0cca8209694fe42673e7cbb8ae273aadecccba98c2954a45da4a78dda0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Power Rangersof AVULUS, Power Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed AVULUS | 30c | 6,164$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.09 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Power Rangers | 72c | 2,124$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.57 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked AVULUS | 29c | 1,588$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.55 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Power Rangers | 70c | 1,376$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.11 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Power Rangers | 72c | 1,306$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.46 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Power Rangers | 69c | 1,073$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.28 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed Power Rangers | 68c | 580$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f294backed AVULUS | 30c | 579.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Power Rangers | 73c | 507.96$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed AVULUS | 46c | 408.33$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Power Rangers | 68c | 399.41$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked AVULUS | 26c | 392.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…412ebacked AVULUS | 5c | 386.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Power Rangers | 71c | 295.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Power Rangers | 69c | 290.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AVULUS | 28c | 227.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed AVULUS | 23c | 222.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed AVULUS | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed AVULUS | 27c | 186.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Power Rangers | 69c | 181.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed AVULUS | 26c | 134.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Power Rangers | 66c | 94.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked AVULUS | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Power Rangers | 69c | 57.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Power Rangers | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AVULUS | 26c | 47.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked AVULUS | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Power Rangers | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Power Rangers | 74c | 31.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Power Rangers | 68c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…6fb6backed Power Rangers | 68c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…450abacked Power Rangers | 68c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Power Rangers | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsPower Rangers won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Power Rangers - Game 2 WinnerPower Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.