Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8a4411374d37aa1d94e3f945089a20bd0b22c2d90657307c76b16e98a2f79f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiranteof Tirante, McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f64…6ddfbacked Tirante | 50c | 679.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.33 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Tirante | 50c | 582$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked McDonald | 58c | 504.79$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.43 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed McDonald | 50c | 499$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed McDonald | 54c | 269.64$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed McDonald | 55c | 247.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tirante | 43c | 193.49$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked McDonald | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Tirante | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed McDonald | 53c | 32.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tirante | 42c | 31.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tirante | 45c | 31.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tirante | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked McDonald | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed McDonald | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Tirante vs McDonaldTirante won
- Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Mackenzie McDonald: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Tirante vs. McDonald: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Mackenzie McDonaldThiago Agustin Tirante won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.