CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a915e658a350f3e66fd2abd9ead56a7bcd27d24bfe1310cf2e6df31211f3a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Spirit | 64c | 6,407$4,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Heroic | 33c | 3,003$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.32 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 34c | 2,877$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.98 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 31c | 982.59$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.43 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 30c | 852.84$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 38c | 810.75$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.26 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Spirit | 56c | 753.76$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.28 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Heroic | 39c | 648$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.72 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…672dbacked Heroic | 45c | 631.32$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Spirit | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…a999backed Heroic | 49c | 408.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 22c | 362.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Heroic | 31c | 254.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Heroic | 20c | 225.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…9517backed Heroic | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…1b46backed Heroic | 29c | 199.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…995abacked Heroic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Heroic | 55c | 140.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Heroic | 43c | 137.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit | 79c | 136.48$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Heroic | 19c | 132.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Spirit | 80c | 85.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…859dbacked Heroic | 22c | 74.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Heroic | 18c | 69.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 421 | 42%177 W · 244 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Spirit | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…b0bcbacked Heroic | 31c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Heroic | 20c | 58.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9baa…5829backed Heroic | 32c | 54.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…5815backed Spirit | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Spirit | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Heroic | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Heroic | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Spirit | 66c | 39.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…cfa8backed Spirit | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.