CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1859af5433cc6a3fbee3c70a085188f31389791db4cd3f15987f0e2319c006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x857c…cb02backed Heroic | 17c | 9,100$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Heroic | 25c | 6,690$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.3 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Heroic | 16c | 5,555$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.79 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 1c | 5,085$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Heroic | 40c | 4,101$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.69 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Spirit | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 17c | 2,370$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.9 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Heroic | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Heroic | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 31c | 1,800$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.59 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 16c | 1,667$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.66 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 47c | 1,647$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.33 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Heroic | 15c | 1,457$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.58 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Spirit | 62c | 1,427$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.3 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 239 | 32.2%77 W · 162 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Heroic | 15c | 1,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 30c | 992.03$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.19 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Heroic | 29c | 828.24$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 249 | 35.7%89 W · 160 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Heroic | 13c | 812.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed Heroic | 19c | 783.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 16c | 776.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Heroic | 17c | 674.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…2890backed Spirit | 60c | 668.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.57 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Spirit | 54c | 621.18$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.18 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Heroic | 14c | 600$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…1774backed Spirit | 55c | 558.18$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.18 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…e7e6backed Spirit | 67c | 525.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Spirit | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Heroic | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Heroic | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…1ab8backed Spirit | 47c | 498.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.03 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Spirit | 60c | 497.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Heroic | 17c | 434.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Heroic | 31c | 421.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Heroic | 10c | 410$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…672dbacked Heroic | 35c | 394.17$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Heroic | 36c | 372$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Spirit | 60c | 345.57$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 421 | 42%177 W · 244 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Heroic | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…9766backed Heroic | 43c | 279.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…cfa8backed Spirit | 56c | 234.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Heroic | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit | 65c | 224.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Spirit | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Spirit | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Heroic | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Heroic | 62c | 184.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Spirit | 59c | 181.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Spirit | 60c | 167.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Spirit | 60c | 150.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Heroic | 17c | 145.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Heroic | 12c | 137.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Spirit | 60c | 127.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Spirit | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Spirit | 68c | 110.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…58a2backed Spirit | 61c | 101.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…b642backed Spirit | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Heroic | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…4578backed Spirit | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Spirit | 50c | 77.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…ba98backed Spirit | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Heroic | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Heroic | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…795fbacked Spirit | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Heroic | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Spirit | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Heroic | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…f72fbacked Spirit | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Spirit | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Spirit | 61c | 47.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Spirit | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Spirit | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Spirit | 59c | 34.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…e1b4backed Spirit | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Spirit | 60c | 33.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…8d39backed Heroic | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Spirit | 61c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Spirit | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…4038backed Spirit | 59c | 20.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…eda0backed Spirit | 61c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.