CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa803e9c42138c3eb9295f2e5fe3758bea71a1e734a9898e1a9196d4da7caa953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd56a…f728backed Spirit | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Heroic | 54c | 4,401$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit | 42c | 3,580$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.2 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Spirit | 39c | 2,037$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.87 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Spirit | 55c | 1,233$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.46 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit | 46c | 1,057$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.81 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Heroic | 46c | 869.02$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.02 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Heroic | 56c | 811.26$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.26 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 34c | 298$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Spirit | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…6c1dbacked Spirit | 78c | 255$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -7.9wins | -0.36per pick | 68cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Heroic | 37c | 192.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Heroic | 20c | 155$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Heroic | 53c | 150.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Heroic | 23c | 148.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic | 27c | 137.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 421 | 42%177 W · 244 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Heroic | 22c | 135$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Spirit | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…b642backed Spirit | 32c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Spirit | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…04dabacked Heroic | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Spirit | 73c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…b394backed Heroic | 41c | 57.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…58a2backed Spirit | 62c | 48.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spirit | 79c | 48.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…4eebbacked Spirit | 80c | 45.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…859dbacked Heroic | 36c | 42.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…9517backed Spirit | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Spirit | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Heroic | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Spirit | 51c | 30.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic (BO3)Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.