Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa8356569f561047b7534fbcacb4b4d2b3edf9420cda13215b967a058a344f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,985 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 8c | 17,780$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.39 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 9c | 3,293$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Yes | 33c | 3,015$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 2,044$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.48 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 3c | 1,928$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,776$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.47 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 4c | 1,741$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 1,292$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 27c | 1,221$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 1,075$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.02 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 8c | 1,046$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.45 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 727.76$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.42 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 67c | 708.12$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Yes | 57c | 699.51$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.63 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 9c | 655.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 58c | 650$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 33c | 453.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.15 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 57c | 401.79$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 66c | 309.18$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 17c | 290$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.7 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 33c | 283.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 43c | 226.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 204.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 198$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 33c | 189.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 180.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 76c | 178.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 67c | 120.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 34c | 74.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 64.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 66c | 62.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 56c | 59.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 50.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 45.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 67c | 37.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 33c | 33.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fb…65d3backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 53c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…4d5fbacked Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.