Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6556733e6ba242c1fa49cfa227877ec4902182459aa974e0cac6e1fa5edee9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,198 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 9,560$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 42c | 5,994$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.62 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe501…5c4fbacked No | 58c | 2,390$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 1,249$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.01 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 60c | 839.02$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.61 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 1c | 791.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 578.11$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked No | 39c | 533.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.02 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed Yes | 45c | 512.78$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 42c | 346.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 60c | 240.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 59c | 190.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 58c | 135.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 116$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed No | 58c | 109.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 58c | 107.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 45c | 93.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 58c | 93.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…2c0abacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 55c | 68.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 58c | 65.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 57c | 64.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 57c | 64.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 41c | 60.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 60c | 58.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 61c | 52.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 41c | 48.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 41c | 47.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 60c | 38.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 58c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 45c | 36.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 54c | 35.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 62c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…38d5backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 59c | 28.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 40c | 28.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed No | 53c | 24.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…7a1bbacked No | 58c | 17.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.