Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa887d9f0ea5302b7869f6310c1edf9e4250db9f8086ffa6f64171821be4b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof MODUS, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Inner Circle | 70c | 2,103$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.56 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MODUS | 27c | 1,560$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.9 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed MODUS | 41c | 957.14$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.56 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 20c | 799.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 765.77$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.95 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MODUS | 48c | 599$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.52 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed MODUS | 45c | 550.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.91 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Inner Circle | 55c | 536.03$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.22 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Inner Circle | 56c | 448.55$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked MODUS | 44c | 363.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed MODUS | 36c | 321$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Inner Circle | 67c | 276.24$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed MODUS | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked MODUS | 17c | 263$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Inner Circle | 79c | 241.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 55c | 196.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MODUS | 19c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 40c | 162.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MODUS | 52c | 154.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 54c | 152.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked MODUS | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Inner Circle | 56c | 133.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed MODUS | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed MODUS | 33c | 105.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked MODUS | 50c | 96.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed MODUS | 26c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked MODUS | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed MODUS | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked MODUS | 47c | 75.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed MODUS | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS | 41c | 62.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd580…a0d5backed MODUS | 49c | 49.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 48.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed MODUS | 46c | 35.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Inner Circle | 63c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…33efbacked MODUS | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Inner Circle | 53c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Inner Circle | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group BInner Circle won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.