Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab35a2e263426d59aee12906c4bceda4b627d00ef218123c3bcfb42628148fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Under | 49c | 2,030$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.33 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4939…9adebacked Under | 50c | 1,986$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 48c | 1,938$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.5 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,703$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.9 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 49c | 1,133$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 1,096$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.47 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 564.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.54 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 40c | 507$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 502.12$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.39 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 357.33$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 340.85$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…f5bdbacked Over | 51c | 307.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 269.07$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…8d95backed Over | 50c | 222.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 47c | 203.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 136 | 31.6%43 W · 93 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 197.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 188.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 49c | 187.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 51c | 184.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 124.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 47c | 99.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 62c | 96.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 92.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 46c | 84.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 51c | 83.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 52c | 61.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over | 45c | 51.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b4a2backed Over | 51c | 36.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Under | 52c | 36.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 47c | 35.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 53c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 52c | 30.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 421 | 51.3%216 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 51c | 26.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 51c | 25.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 74c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 374 | 59.1%221 W · 153 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.