Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953ee14d3e5dbcfbe83f01c4d48c4e1328356b8a696a0eaf65442d50ef1fa331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Over | 68c | 4,185$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 3,100$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.67 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,173$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.41 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 36c | 921.52$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 702.47$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.95 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 77c | 390.91$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 36c | 143.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 66c | 95.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 35c | 73.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 34c | 71.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 77c | 34.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 66c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.