Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1275a0d044eeac98840cc0b9db02d0742b2b85b1d6ddbbf183299b59b39a2710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…e838backed Under | 63c | 8,578$5,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 8,527$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.23 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 41c | 5,947$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 60c | 3,308$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.06 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 2,991$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 68c | 1,178$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.61 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 890.69$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 64c | 777.75$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed Under | 74c | 404.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 33c | 299.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 13c | 299.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 229.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 13c | 195.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…134fbacked Over | 16c | 167.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 68c | 121.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 79c | 119.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 56c | 116.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 67c | 87.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 84.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 32c | 76.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 79c | 69.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 22c | 59.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 66c | 47.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 66c | 46.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 66c | 46.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…36a2backed Over | 38c | 42.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 40c | 38.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 36c | 34.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…1184backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 63c | 25.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.